Monitoring SEIRD model parameters using MEWMA for the COVID-19 pandemic with application to the State of Qatar

During the current COVID-19 pandemic, decision makers are tasked with implementing and evaluating strategies for both treatment and disease prevention. In order to make effective decisions, they need to simultaneously monitor various attributes of the pandemic such as transmission rate and infection rate for disease prevention, recovery rate which indicates treatment effectiveness as well as the mortality rate and others. This work presents a technique for monitoring the pandemic by employing an Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered Death model regularly estimated by an augmented particle Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme in which the posterior distribution samples are monitored via Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Average process monitoring. This is illustrated on the COVID-19 data for the State of Qatar

A diagnostic tool for family and marriage counseling with Muslim couples

This study aimed to describe the development and psychometric properties of a questionnaire for Muslim couples and families based on how couples view and experience marital and family issues. A questionnaire was developed based on relevant literature and fine-tuned by a panel of experts. The questionnaire was administered to a sample of 1212 heterosexual Muslim individuals of 389 married couples aged 22–55 years old (overall mean age = 38.15 years, SD = 9.47; husbands’ mean age = 38.25 years, SD = 9.23; wives’ mean age = 38.06, SD = 9.70). The participants were divided into two subsamples for exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis and to draw Pearson correlations with the Dyadic Adjustment Scale (DAS) for validation procedures. The results indicate the strong statistical significance of a 22-item five-factor structure: structural attribute satisfaction, marital harmony, emotional and sexual harmony, spouse’s family communication, and religious matters. The factors were interpreted theoretically and indicate a superior level of internal consistency. The validation process indicates that the questionnaire was appropriate for the targeted population. The validated tool is useful for the assessment of marital and family therapy with Muslim couples and families. The WIFAQ Questionnaire for Muslim Couples and Families (WQMCF) fills a critical gap in the market for a family health indicator that can be used in both local and national populations. In health care settings and organizations that provide services to families, the WQMCF may be an important screener of family and marriage counseling in Muslim couples. Individuals, communities, and nations can all benefit from a stronger understanding of the antecedents and outcomes of family health.For valuable feedback on this work we thank all of the psychology and social worker teams in the Family Consulting Center Research. Data collection and preliminary analysis were supported by an award from the Family Consulting Center (WIFAQ) - Qatar (a member of the Qatar Foundation). The statements made herein are solely the responsibility of the authors

Kynurenine 3-Monooxygenase gene associated with Nicotine initiation and addiction: Analysis of novel regulatory features at 5' and 3'-Regions

© 2018 Aziz, Abdel-Salam, Al-Obaide, Alobydi and Al-Humaish. Tobacco smoking is widespread behavior in Qatar and worldwide and is considered one of the major preventable causes of ill health and death. Nicotine is part of tobacco smoke that causes numerous health risks and is incredibly addictive; it binds to the α7 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (α7nAChR) in the brain. Recent studies showed α7nAChR involvement in the initiation and addiction of smoking. Kynurenic acid (KA), a significant tryptophan metabolite, is an antagonist of α7nAChR. Inhibition of kynurenine 3-monooxygenase enzyme encoded by KMO enhances the KA levels. Modulating KMO gene expression could be a useful tactic for the treatment of tobacco initiation and dependence. Since KMO regulation is still poorly understood, we aimed to investigate the 5' and 3'-regulatory factors of KMO gene to advance our knowledge to modulate KMO gene expression. In this study, bioinformatics methods were used to identify the regulatory sequences associated with expression of KMO. The displayed differential expression of KMO mRNA in the same tissue and different tissues suggested the specific usage of the KMO multiple alternative promoters. Eleven KMO alternative promoters identified at 5'-regulatory region contain TATA-Box, lack CpG Island (CGI) and showed dinucleotide base-stacking energy values specific to transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs). The structural features of regulatory sequences can influence the transcription process and cell type-specific expression. The uncharacterized LOC105373233 locus coding for non-coding RNA (ncRNA) located on the reverse strand in a convergent manner at the 3'-side of KMO locus. The two genes likely expressed by a promoter that lacks TATA-Box harbor CGI and two TFBSs linked to the bidirectional transcription, the NRF1, and ZNF14 motifs. We identified two types of microRNA (miR) in the uncharacterized LOC105373233 ncRNA, which are like hsa-miR-5096 and hsa-miR-1285-3p and can target the miR recognition element (MRE) in the KMO mRNA. Pairwise sequence alignment identified 52 nucleotides sequence hosting MRE in the KMO 3' UTR untranslated region complementary to the ncRNA LOC105373233 sequence. We speculate that the identified miRs can modulate the KMO expression and together with alternative promoters at the 5'-regulatory region of KMO might contribute to the development of novel diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm for tobacco smoking

Blue Nile Incision on the Ethiopian Plateau: Pulsed Plateau Growth, Pliocene Uplift, and Hominin Evolution

The 1.6-km-deep Gorge of the Nile, a rival of the Grand Canyon, resulted from the deep incision of the Blue Nile drainage into the uplifted Ethiopian Plateau. Understanding the incision history of the plateau is crucial to unraveling the Cenozoic tectonoclimatic evolution of the region, particularly because the region has long been used as a natural laboratory to understand the geodynamics of continental rifting and the evolution of hominins. We undertake a quantitative geomorphologic approach integrating field, geographic information system (GIS), and digital elevation model (DEM) data to analyze incision (volume, long-term rates, and spatiotemporal variability) and river longitudinal profiles of the Blue Nile drainage. Previously published isotopic ages of the Cenozoic volcanic rocks are used to constrain long-term incision rates through geologic time. Our data argue that (1) the Blue Nile drainage has removed at least 93,200 km3 of rocks from the northwestern Ethiopian Plateau since ca. 29 Ma (early Oligocene) through a three-phase (ca. 29-10 Ma, ca. 10-6 Ma, and ca. 6 Ma to present) incision, where long-term incision rates increased rapidly and episodically in the late Miocene (ca. 10 Ma and ca. 6 Ma); (2) being out-of-phase with the past climatic events and in-phase with the main volcanic episodes of the region, this episodic increase of incision rate is suggestive of episodic growth of the plateau; (3) of the ~2-km rock uplift of the plateau since ca. 30 Ma, 0.3 km was due to isostatic uplift related to erosional unloading, and the rest was due to other tectonic activities; (4) the extremely rapid long-term incision rate increase, thus a rapid uplift of the plateau, ca. 6 Ma might be related to lithospheric foundering, caused by ponded plume material beneath the Ethiopian Plateau and aided by huge tectonic stresses related to the Messinian salinity crisis of the Mediterranean Sea. These events could have caused the plateau to rise \u3e1 km within a few m.y. in the early Pliocene. This uplift history of the Ethiopian Plateau can shed critical light on the geodynamics of the Afar mantle plume and the evolution of the East African hominins via climate change

Seismic Anisotropy Beneath the Afar Depression and Adjacent Areas: Implications for Mantle Flow

Shear wave splitting is a robust tool to infer the direction and strength of seismic anisotropy in the lithosphere and underlying asthenosphere. Previous shear wave splitting studies in the Afar Depression and adjacent areas concluded that either Precambrian sutures or vertical magmatic dikes are mostly responsible for the observed anisotropy. Here we report results of a systematic analysis of teleseismic shear wave splitting using all the available broadband seismic data recorded in the Afar Depression, Main Ethiopian Rift (MER), and Ethiopian Plateau. We found that while the ~450 measurements on the Ethiopian Plateau and in the MER show insignificant azimuthal variations with MER-parallel fast directions and thus can be explained by a single layer of anisotropy, the ~150 measurements in the Afar Depression reveal a systematic azimuthal dependence of splitting parameters with a π/2 periodicity, suggesting a two-layer model of anisotropy. The top layer is characterized by a relatively small (0.65 s) splitting delay time and a WNW fast direction that can be attributed to magmatic dikes within the lithosphere, and the lower layer has a larger (2.0 s) delay time and a NE fast direction. Using the spatial coherency of the splitting parameters obtained in the MER and on the Ethiopian Plateau, we estimated that the optimal depth of the source of anisotropy is centered at about 300 km, i.e., in the asthenosphere. The spatial and azimuthal variations of the observed anisotropy can best be explained by a NE directed flow in the asthenosphere beneath the MER and the Afar Depression

If current inhibitor ivabradine in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy: Impact on the exercise tolerance and quality of life

Background: Evidence supported a beneficial effect of ivabradine on clinical outcome of patients with systolic heart failure, and a sinus heart rate (HR) ≥ 70 bpm. We explored the effect of ivabradine, vs. placebo, added to evidence-based treatment on exercise tolerance and quality of life in patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Methods: We enrolled 43 consecutive patients with dilated cardiomyopathy of no apparent cause, a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40%, New York Heart Association class ≥ II, sinus HR ≥ 70 bpm, and background evidence-based anti-failure medications. Ischemic heart disease was ruled out. Patients were randomized (1:1) to receive ivabradine or placebo. Ivabradine was titrated up gradually till 7.5 mg twice daily, or a HR < 60 bpm, and continued for 3 months. Symptom-limited exercise tolerance test was performed, and quality of life was assessed by the Minnesota Living With Heart Failure Questionnaire at 0, and 3 months. Results: Forty-three patients were randomized to ivabradine (n = 20), or placebo (n = 23). Mean age was 50.8 ± 14.5 years (53.5% males). Mean HR was 85 ± 12 bpm, and mean LVEF was 32 ± 6%. Mean dose of carvedilol was 31.2% of the target dose. Baseline HR, blood pressure, exercise tolerance, Minnesota questionnaire score, and left ventricular systolic function were comparable between the two groups (p > 0.05 for all). At 3 months, mean dose of ivabradine was 6.8 mg bid. Ivabradine-treated patients had a lower HR, and improved left ventricular dimensions and systolic function, versus placebo-treated ones (p < 0.05 for all). HR dropped by a mean of 14 bpm in the ivabradine group, corrected for placebo. Both exercise tolerance, and Minnesota questionnaire score were better in the ivabradine group (p < 0.05 both). Ivabradine was well-tolerated. Conclusions: In symptomatic patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, the addition of ivabradine, vs. placebo, to evidence-based treatment, reduced HR, and improved functional capacity, at short-term follow-up

Rise and Demise of the New Lakes of Sahara

Multispectral remote sensing data and digital elevation models were used to examine the spatial and temporal evolution of the New Lakes of Sahara in southern Egypt. These lakes appeared in September 1998, when water spilled northwestward toward the Tushka depression due to an unusual water rise in Lake Nasser induced by high precipitation in the Ethiopian Highlands. Five lakes were formed in local depressions underlain by an impermeable Paleocene shale and chalk formation. The lakes developed through three stages. (1) A rise stage occurred from September 1998 to August 2001; the area covered by the lakes reached ~1586 km2. In this stage the rate of water supply far exceeded the rate of water loss through evaporation. This stage was characterized by an early phase (August 1998-August 1999) when the area covered by the lakes increased by ~75 km2/month. This was followed by a late phase (August 1999-August 2001), in which area increase averaged ~28 km2/month. (2) A steady-state stage occurred from August 2001 to August 2003, during which the area covered by the lakes remained relatively unchanged and water lost through evaporation was continuously replaced by water supply from Lake Nasser. (3) A demise stage occurred from August 2003 to April 2007, during which water supply from Lake Nasser stopped completely and water was continuously evaporating. The area covered by the lakes decreased to ~800 km2 with an average loss of ~17 km2/month. If this trend continues, the New Lakes of Sahara will disappear completely by March 2011. The spatial distribution of the New Lakes of Sahara is strongly controlled by morphologically defined east-, north-, northeast-, and northwest-trending faults. The water recharge of the Nubian aquifer by the New Lakes of Sahara is insignificant; much of the lakes\u27 area is above an impermeable formation

Functional linear models for interval-valued data

Aggregation of large databases in a specific format is a frequently used process to make the data easily manageable. Interval-valued data is one of the data types that is generated by such an aggregation process. Using traditional methods to analyze interval-valued data results in loss of information, and thus, several interval-valued data models have been proposed to gather reliable information from such data types. On the other hand, recent technological developments have led to high dimensional and complex data in many application areas, which may not be analyzed by traditional techniques. Functional data analysis is one of the most commonly used techniques to analyze such complex datasets. While the functional extensions of much traditional statistical techniques are available, the functional form of the interval-valued data has not been studied well. This article introduces the functional forms of some well-known regression models that take interval-valued data. The proposed methods are based on the function-on-function regression model, where both the response and predictor/s are functional. Through several Monte Carlo simulations and empirical data analysis, the finite sample performance of the proposed methods is evaluated and compared with the state-of-the-art